You can't make this stuff up: Harsh winter caused by global warming

I toyed with the idea of moving forward in 2011 by imposing a ban on all stories related to the global warming/climate change scam. However, to do so would be to rob myself and readers of this blog the pleasure of laughing at the assertions of the climate alarmists, which seem to be growing more intensely hilarious every day. Once upon a time, laughter was one of the most indispensable means of ending needless debates before they got started. An idea so ridiculous that it was met with laughter upon its introduction in the public square could never spawn a worldwide movement or force the leaders of the civilized world to fork over billions of dollars to advance its bogus aims.

Over the last few decades, however, we have, in the interest of "tolerance" and "fairness," lost our ability to laugh at ridiculous ideas. Nowadays an idea, no matter how absurd, is deemed worthy of consideration merely because it is the brainchild of lettered men and women who have eschewed life in the real world for the cozy comfort of the ivory tower. You wouldn't laugh at an esteemed professor at a noted international university, would you? Of course not! So, when the "experts" told us ten years ago that "global warming" meant the end of snowy winters in Great Britain, we couldn't laugh. We had to take them seriously. Likewise, it is no laughing matter now when they tell us that this year's record cold winter in Great Britain is a direct result of the very same "global warming."

Scientists have established a link between the cold, snowy winters in Britain and melting sea ice in the Arctic and have warned that long periods of freezing weather are likely to become more frequent in years to come.

An analysis of the ice-free regions of the Arctic Ocean has found that the higher temperatures there caused by global warming, which have melted the sea ice in the summer months, have paradoxically increased the chances of colder winters in Britain and the rest of northern Europe.

The findings are being assessed by British climate scientists, who have been asked by ministers for advice on whether the past two cold winters are part of a wider pattern of climate change that will cause further damaging disruption to the nation's creaking transport infrastructure.

Some climate scientists believe that the dramatic retreat of the Arctic sea ice over the past 30 years has begun to change the wind patterns over much of the northern hemisphere, causing cold, Arctic air to be funnelled over Britain during winter, replacing the mild westerly airstream that normally dominates the UK's weather.

The study was carried out in 2009, before last year's harsh winter started to bite, and is all the more prescient because of its prediction that cold, snowy winters will be about three times more frequent in the coming years compared to previous decades.

The researchers used computer models to assess the impact of the disappearing Arctic sea ice, particularly in the area of the Barents and Kara seas north of Scandinavia and Russia, which have experienced unprecedented losses of sea ice during summer.

Their models found that, as the ice cap over the ocean disappeared, this allowed the heat of the relatively warm seawater to escape into the much colder atmosphere above, creating an area of high pressure surrounded by clockwise-moving winds that sweep down from the polar region over Europe and the British Isles. Vladimir Petoukhov, who carried out the study at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said the computer simulations showed that the disappearing sea ice is likely to have widespread and unpredictable impacts on the climate of the northern hemisphere.

One of the principal predictions of the study was that the warming of the air over the ice-free seas is likely to bring bitterly cold air to Europe during the winter months, Dr Petoukhov said. "This is not what one would expect. Whoever thinks that the shrinking of some far away sea-ice won't bother him could be wrong. There are complex interconnections in the climate system, and in the Barents-Kara Sea we might have discovered a powerful feedback mechanism," he said.

In the paper, submitted in November 2009 but published last month in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Dr Petoukhov and his colleague Vladimir Semenov write: "Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict with the global warming picture but rather supplement it."

Arctic sea ice has been in retreat over recent decades, with record lows recorded in September 2007. The normal recovery of the sea ice during winter has also been affected, especially in the Barents and Kara seas which have seen significant losses of ice cover over the past decade.

Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of physics of the oceans at the Potsdam Institute, said the floating sea ice in winter insulates the relatively warm seawater from the bitterly cold temperatures of the air above it, which can be around -20C or -30C.

"The Arctic sea ice is shrinking and at the moment it is at a record low for mid-to-late December, which provides a big heat source for the atmosphere," Professor Rahmstorf said. "The open ocean actually heats the atmosphere above because the ocean in the Arctic is about 0C, and that's much warmer than the atmosphere about it. This is a massive change compared with an ice-covered ocean, where the ice operates like a lid. You don't get that heating from below.

"The model simulations show that, when you don't get ice on the Barents and Kara seas, that promotes the formation of a high-pressure system there, and, because the airflow is clockwise around the high, it brings cold, polar air right into Europe, which leads to cold conditions here while it is unusually warm elsewhere, especially in the Arctic," he explained.

The scientists emphasised that the climate is complex and there were other factors at play. It is, they said, too early to be sure if the past two cold winters are due to the ice-free Arctic.

"I want to be cautious, but basically in the past couple of months the sea ice cover has been low and so, according to the model simulations, that would encourage this kind of weather pattern," Professor Rahmstorf said.

"The last winter of 2009-10 turned out to be fitting that pattern very well, and perhaps this winter as well, so that is three data points. I would say it's not definite confirmation of the mechanism, but it certainly fits the pattern," he said.

The computer model used by the scientists also predicted that, as the ice cover continues to be lost, the weather pattern is likely to shift back into a phase of warmer-than-usual winters. Global warming will also continue to warm the Arctic air mass, Professor Rahmstorf said.

"If you look ahead 40 or 50 years, these cold winters will be getting warmer because, even though you are getting an inflow of cold polar air, that air mass is getting warmer because of the greenhouse effect," he said. "So it's a transient phenomenon. In the long run, global warming wins out."

George Orwell, who would doubtless be impressed with the climate alarmists' adept use of doublespeak, once wrote of the similarly absurd and often self-contradictory notions popular among intellectuals of his day, “One has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that: no ordinary man could be such a fool.” Wesley J. Smith summarizes the comical twists and turns of the "global warming" saga and its diminishing credibility among the "ordinary" folks.

Weather changes supposedly to be caused by global warming and computer models have proved continually wrong–and still government leaders go to them for a tarot card reading. I am reminded of a great old Twilight Zone, in which a newlywed couple (a very young William Shatner played the husband) were afraid to leave town because of what a fortune telling machine kept telling them. No matter what the question or circumstance, somehow disaster portended.

But this is what most people see: If it’s an arctic freeze, it’s global warming. If it’s unseasonably mild, it’s global warming. If it rains harder than normal, why that is exactly what we would expect with global warming! Drought? Ditto. Heat wave–well of course, the earth is warming! Neither rain, nor snow, nor hail, nor sleet, nor baking sun, nor hurricanes, nor lack of hurricanes–or for that matter, any unusual weather pattern or condition–can stop some global warming scientists from blaming global warming. Whatever it is. Wherever it is. Whenever it is.

And that, is precisely why fewer and fewer people are paying attention. Maybe they should keep their mouths shut and just say, “We aren’t sure exactly what will happen.”

Indeed, admitting a little uncertainty, not taking themselves and their work quite so seriously, would give these "experts" a little more credibility. There is no laughter more therapeutic than the laughter directed at oneself.

UPDATE: Investors Business Daily takes aim at the religion of global warming. H/T to Stand Firm.

Karl Popper, the late, great philosopher of science, noted that for something to be called scientific, it must be, as he put it, "falsifiable." That is, for something to be scientifically true, you must be able to test it to see if it's false. That's what scientific experimentation and observation do. That's the essence of the scientific method.

Unfortunately, the prophets of climate doom violate this idea. No matter what happens, it always confirms their basic premise that the world is getting hotter. The weather turns cold and wet? It's global warming, they say. Weather turns hot? Global warming. No change? Global warming. More hurricanes? Global warming. No hurricanes? You guessed it.

Nothing can disprove their thesis. Not even the extraordinarily frigid weather now creating havoc across most of the Northern Hemisphere. The Los Angeles Times, in a piece on the region's strangely wet and cold weather, paraphrases Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatologist Bill Patzert as saying, "In general, as the globe warms, weather conditions tend to be more extreme and volatile."

Got that? No matter what the weather, it's all due to warming. This isn't science; it's a kind of faith. Scientists go along and even stifle dissent because, frankly, hundreds of millions of dollars in research grants are at stake. But for the believers, global warming is the god that failed.